Reports

The study was produced by the VCE without any external funding. VCE shares the report and the output data files as open source.

The world is accelerating its pace to decarbonize the economy. Clean energy is being deployed at historic rates, yet the task ahead is still incredibly daunting. The role of advanced nuclear has been studied under different paradigms to understand its role in decarbonizing the United States. In the present study, we expand on this work by modeling two distinct scenarios: First, a nominal scenario, where advanced nuclear is able to grow in a rapidly responsive supply-chain, permitting, regulatory and labor environment, is simulated from 2020 through 2050 in yearly investment periods. Secondly, a constrained scenario is simulated where the responsiveness is sluggish. The key feature of the modeling is the inclusion of endogenous learning for installation costs of advanced nuclear. This enables the model response to delays or slower deployment rates. In addition, the modeling includes first-of-a-kind (FOAK) prices and pilot deployments to initialize the learning.

Under the nominal scenario by 2030 there is approximately 7 GW of advanced nuclear compared with nearly 2 GW in the constrained scenario. A seemingly small difference compared with the total installed generation capacity (~1,100 GW) across the United States. However, this difference continues to expand due to the delays and learning, and by the end of 2050 the nominal scenario has 336 GW of advanced nuclear deployed compared with the 60 GW deployed in the constrained scenario. This difference in capacity has a larger influence on generation with the nominal scenario having 43% of demand met by nuclear (advanced and legacy) while the constrained scenario only covers 13%. Moreover, the constrained scenario costs customers an additional $449 billion through 2050. The additional costs come primarily from the need in the constrained scenario for 870 GW of additional solar PV, 377 GW of additional wind, and 228 GW of additional storage (with 3 additional hours). Both scenarios are successful in reducing electricity grid GHG emissions by over 95% by 2050 and reducing the economy-wide GHG emissions by over 60%.

VCE produced the study using modeling outputs from the WIS:dom-P simulation tool with electrification, endogenous learning, hydrogen, and advanced nuclear activated. This deployment of endogenous learning and novel technologies demonstrates the capability of WIS:dom-P to improve the fidelity of simulations around electrification, decarbonization and technology deployment. Technical documentation for the WIS:dom^®-P model can be found here.

The study was produced by the VCE with funding from the Nuclear Energy Institute. VCE shares the report, and WIS:dom-P modeling summary outputs for the two scenarios below.

The world is decarbonizing and Texas is uniquely positioned to lead the world in the transition to a carbon-neutral energy economy. With the second highest Gross State Product in the US, the Texas economy is on par with countries like Canada, Italy, or Brazil. Thus, Texas’s decisions have global implications. Texas also has an abundant resource of low-carbon energy sources to harness and a world-class workforce with technical capabilities to implement solutions at a large-scale quickly and safely. There are many ways to fully decarbonize the Texas economy across all sectors by 2050. In this analysis, we present a Business as Usual (BAU) scenario and four possible pathways to Texas achieving state-wide net-zero emissions by 2050.

VCE contributed to the study by providing WIS:dom-P modeling results for the Texas electricity grid while undergoing electrification and decarbonization (VCE also produced Appendix F to outline their findings). The present study contains the first publicly available WIS:dom-P simulations of novel fuel generation (hydrogen, renewable natural gas, ammonia, fertilizer, and methanol). Additionally, the modeling includes direct air capture, small modular nuclear generators, and natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration technologies. These new technologies and fuels are fully resolved in the WIS:dom-P model and interact with the electricity grid accordingly. This deployment of novel fuels and technologies illustrates the expansion capability of WIS:dom-P to connect electricity simulations with decarbonization of difficult sectors. Technical documentation for the WIS:dom^®-P model can be found here.

The study was produced by the Cockrell School of Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin in collaboration with Energy Innovation, Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado Boulder and VCE. The funders of the study include: The Cynthia and George Mitchell Foundation, The Energy Foundation, The Meadows Foundation, and the Catena Foundation.

More details can be found at the Cockrell School of Engineering website. Energy Innovation hosts their Energy Policy Simulator that has been expanded for Texas during this project here. VCE shares the report, appendices and WIS:dom-P modeling summary outputs below.

The present study investigates possible pathways to decarbonize the economy in the state of Michigan by 2050. The study compares the IRPs (integrated resource plan) of several utilities against optimized clean economy scenarios. One scenario considers only utility-scale generation while a second considers co-optimization with the distribution grid and assets.

The study found that the Michigan average energy burden (the cost of all energy products) for residential and commercial customers would fall by approximately $773 per year; amounting to a reduction of almost 20% compared with the IRP scenario. For industrial customers, the average savings amounts to $69,680 annually. This amounts to approximately 10% of operating costs and can be used to lower product costs. Under electrification and decarbonization, retail rates would fall by 4¢/kWh from todays rates by 2030 and remain 3¢/kWh below by 2050, while creating an additional 105,000 (50,000 by 2030) new net in-state jobs by 2045.

The study was produced by VCE for Vote Solar. Vibrant Clean Energy, LLC performed all the modeling using the WIS:dom^®-P model with nationally recognized publicly available data and assumptions. The VCE study report is provided here as well as a webinar on the study. More details can be found at the Vote Solar website. Technical documentation for the WIS:dom^®-P model can be found here.

The present study hones in on the state of New York and how it might decarbonize the economy by 2050. The study was seeking to determine the benefits of decarbonization and the inclusion of distributed co-optimization into the logic.

The study found that New York could save $28 billion by 2050 aided through deployments of distributed solar PV and storage. Additionally, the study identified the buildout within Disadvantaged Communities (DACs) and found that substantial amounts of investment would flow to these regions when considering distributed resources. Further, it is found that the average energy burden (the cost of all energy products) for residential and commercial customers would fall by approximately $1,343 per year by 2050; amounting to a reduction of almost 20%. Retail rates would fall by 1.7¢/kWh from todays rates, and creates 600,000 (200,000 by 2030) new net in-state jobs compared with today.

The study was produced by VCE for Local Solar For All. Vibrant Clean Energy, LLC performed all the modeling using the WIS:dom^®-P model with nationally recognized publicly available data and assumptions. The VCE study report is provided here as well as a webinar on the study. More details can be found at the Local Solar For All website. Technical documentation for the WIS:dom^®-P model can be found here.

The present study investigates how the United States could decarbonize its entire economy by 2050 while incorporating distributed energy resources (DERs) and comparing this against doing it without these DERs.

The study found that the USA could save over $500 billion cumulatively by 2050 if it includes co-optimization of the distribution and utility scale resources. This would result in energy costs for US average customers to be reduced by around $2,000 per year. All this is achieved while reducing GHG emissions to almost zero by 2050 across the economy, increasing full time jobs in the electricity sector and cleaning harmful pollutants from the air. The buildout does require large amounts of increases in wind, solar PV and storage to achieve the national goals by 2030. Further, to keep costs low, large amounts of interstate transmission must be constructed.

The study was produced by VCE for the Local Solar for All. Vibrant Clean Energy, LLC performed all the modeling using the WIS:dom^®-P model with nationally recognized publicly available data and assumptions. The VCE study report is provided here as well as a presentation from the webinar on the study. More details can be found at the Local Solar for All website. Technical documentation for the WIS:dom^®-P model can be found here.

The present study investigates how a regional market in the Southeast United States could save money for customers, clean the grid further, and increase jobs compared with the South East Energy Market (SEEM) exchange proposed.

The study found that the Southeast USA could save $119 billion by 2040 with a full RTO compared with SEEM. The full RTO would create a million new net jobs in the Southeast as well as reducing GHG emissions in accordance with complete decarbonization by 2050. The full RTO unlocks much more wind, solar PV and electricity storage across the entire footprint, enabled by transmission and a transparent market structure.

The study was produced by VCE for the American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE). Vibrant Clean Energy, LLC performed all the modeling using the WIS:dom^®-P model with nationally recognized publicly available data and assumptions. The VCE study report is provided here as well as a presentation from the webinar on the study. More details can be found at the ACORE website. Technical documentation for the WIS:dom^®-P model can be found here.

The present study hones in on the state of California and how it might decarbonize the economy by 2050. The study was seeking to determine the benefits of decarbonization and the inclusion of distributed co-optimization into the logic.

The study found that California could save $120 billion by 2050 aided through deployments of over 60,000 MW of distributed solar. Retail rates would fall dramatically from todays rates, and creates 374,000 (100,000 by 2030) new net in-state jobs compared with a future that does not consider coordinating distributed generation with the utility grid.

The study was produced by VCE for Local Solar For All. Vibrant Clean Energy, LLC performed all the modeling using the WIS:dom^®-P model with nationally recognized publicly available data and assumptions. The VCE study report is provided here as well as a webinar on the study. More details can be found at the Local Solar For All website. Technical documentation for the WIS:dom^®-P model can be found here.

The present study focuses on Montana (along with modeling the whole of the Western United States). The study sought to analyze different pathways for Montana to clean the electricity grid. It further sought to determine what the impact of electrifying the economy.

The study found that Montana can reliably provide electricity without any coal generation. Further, it can replace all fossil generation by 2035 and lower customer costs. The lower costs and reduction in fossil generation does not hamper reliability. Further, it increases in-state jobs and lowers pollution dramatically.

If Montana decarbonizes the electricity grid (by 2035) and electrifies its economy, the state could save $33 billion by 2050, but more importantly the average energy cost for each customer would reduce by over $2,500 per year (when considering electricity, transport, heating and industry). The electrification forces growth in demand, which results in a doubling of in-state electricity jobs through 2050. The state would be 100% renewable electricity by 2035 (though imports are still necessary to balance supply and demand).

The study was produced by VCE for GridLab and 350Montana. Vibrant Clean Energy, LLC performed all the modeling using the WIS:dom^®-P model with nationally recognized publicly available data and assumptions. The VCE study report and the executive summary are provided here. Technical documentation for the WIS:dom^®-P model can be found here.

The present study hones in on the state of Illinois and how it might decarbonize the economy by 2050. The study was seeking to determine the benefits of decarbonization and the inclusion of distributed co-optimization into the logic.

The study found that Illinois could save $3.4 billion by 2050 aided in part through deployments of 8,500 MW of distributed solar generation by 2030. Retail rates would fall by as much as 43% from todays rates, and reduce pollution by 15% and creates 63,000 new net in-state jobs compared with a future that does not consider coordinating distributed generation with the utility grid.

The study was produced by VCE for Local Solar For All. Vibrant Clean Energy, LLC performed all the modeling using the WIS:dom^®-P model with nationally recognized publicly available data and assumptions. The VCE study report is provided here as well as a webinar on the study. More details can be found at the Local Solar For All website. Technical documentation for the WIS:dom^®-P model can be found here.

In 2018, MISO commissioned VCE to produce multiple (2014-2019) years of 5-minute, 3-km power data for wind and solar across the United States. As part of that study, VCE documented the procedure and validation of the datasets as well as performed detailed modeling of the MISO & Eastern Interconnection electricity grid with various penetrations of renewable electricity generation.

The datasets and modeling results will help inform MISO MTEP, RIIA, Futures, and other projects within MISO. The modeling carried out help shape the MISO renewable zones and these reports document the results of the efforts within the study.

The modeling of the grids was purposefully not aligned with time, but rather to the amount of renewable energy procured on the grid. This allowed us to study the impacts of integration more closely without multiple changing variables. The reports can also be obtained from the MISO website: https://www.misoenergy.org/planning/policy-studies/ (under the “Renewable Integration Studies” tab).

The VCE self-funded white paper on Winter Storm Uri impacts on ERCOT. The study analyzes the weather and its impacts on the ERCOT grid that caused widespread blackouts from Valentines day 2021 through the 20th. The study assess the possibility of winterization for wind turbines and how interconnections to MISO and SPP could have helped the ERCOT grid in its time of crisis. We also analyzed the natural gas outages and how out of the normal range they were considering their advertisement of being “firm.”

Overall, the study finds that wind outperformed expectations for almost all the time during the blackouts; HVDC links to MISO and SPP would have alleviated a portion of the issues; winterization of wind would have helped even further; solar out performed expectations; natural gas and other thermal assets under performed extensively across the time period.

All the data we used to analyze the period is being released with the report for transparency.

The Minnesota Citizens Utility Board used VCE and WIS:dom^®-P model to produce a plan for the Xcel IRP in Minnesota.

The study found that Xcel can procure more wind and solar as well as expand distributed solar PV across their footprint. It also shows that they should procure electricity storage and new transmission lines to integrate further with MISO. Finally, the modeling shows that Xcel could do all this while retiring coal, building no new natural gas plants and lower rates for customers.

Technical documentation for the WIS:dom^®-P model can be found here.

The present study finds that by including the co-optimization of the distribution system, the contiguous United States could spend $473 billion less on cleaning the electricity system by 95% by 2050 and add over 8 million new jobs. The clean electricity system is even cheaper than BAU, without distribution co-optimization to the tune of $88 billion. The findings suggest that local solar and storage can amplified utility-scale wind and solar as well as provide economic stimulus to all regions across the contiguous US.

The study finds that wind, solar, storage and transmission can be complements to each other to help reduce the cost to decarbonize the electricity system. Transmission provides spatial diversity, storage provides temporal diversity, and the wind and solar provide the low-cost, emission-free generation. Further, the distributed solar and storage provide local back-up and diversity for consumers to be able to purchase their electricity product without significant alterations to their behavior: in other words, the distributed solar and storage alters demand to supply, without the customers noticing.

The study was produced by VCE, for the Coalition for Community Solar Access, Vote Solar, and Local Solar For All. Vibrant Clean Energy, LLC performed all the modeling using the WIS:dom^®-P model with nationally recognized publicly available data and assumptions. The executive summary, slide deck white paper, summary spreadsheet, technical report and a press release are provided. Technical documentation for the WIS:dom^®-P model can be found here.

The present study finds that by the entire Eastern Interconnection (EIC) decarbonizing by 95% by 2050 (and 65% by 2035) over 6 million new jobs could be created and $100 billion could be saved. This saving amounts to about $300 per residential customer per year. To achieve the low-emission electricity system, transmission must be expanded across the EIC to efficiently share the over 80% of wind and solar generation by 2050.

The study finds that wind, solar, storage and transmission can be complements to each other to help reduce the cost to decarbonize the electricity system. Transmission provides spatial diversity, storage provides temporal diversity, and the wind and solar provide the low-cost, emission-free generation.

The study was produced jointly by VCE, Grid Strategies and released by the Americans for Clean Energy Grid (ACEG). Vibrant Clean Energy, LLC performed all the modeling using the WIS:dom^®-P model with nationally recognized publicly available data and assumptions. All salient outputs are provided, along with a report and a press release. Technical documentation for the WIS:dom^®-P model can be found here.

The present study finds that Colorado would benefit (in terms of cost of electricity supply, job numbers, and GHG emissions) the most by joining the CAISO organized Western Energy Imbalance Market (EIM). The evolution of the western grid enhances Colorado position within it due to the rich wind and solar resource it possesses.

Colorado can vastly improve its electricity system by coordinating transmission planning and designing a statewide (or zonal) transmission tariff. These improvements provide lower cost electricity, cleaner electricity and more jobs.

The more integrated a unified Colorado electricity system gets with wider regionalization, the greater the economic and environmental benefits.

The study was commissioned by Holy Cross Energy and the Intermountain Rural Electric Association. Vibrant Clean Energy, LLC performed all the modeling using the WIS:dom^®-P model with nationally recognized publicly available data and assumptions. All salient outputs are provided, along with a report and a summary presentation. Technical documentation for the WIS:dom^®-P model can be found here.

Vibrant Clean Energy (VCE^®) partnered with Energy Innovations to study the potential impact of a regional transmission organization (RTO) for the Southeastern United States (SE-RTO).

The modeling (using WIS:dom^®-P) found that with an RTO the region could save $384 billion by 2040, create 285,000 full time jobs, reduce emissions by 37% and provide transparency in the region.

Interestingly wind power, in the modeling, became an important contribution to the electricity mix. With it increasingly providing capacity requirements for winter demand profiles. Further, the modeling found that distributed energy resources (DERs) and their co-optimization provided 10% of the system savings.

Since it was such an exciting report for us, we made a whole page for it. Check it out below.

The present EPRI report documents the possible considerations needed in advanced Coordinated Expansion Planning (CEP) for the future electricity and energy system. VCE® contributed to the report using its deep knowledge of modeling and grid integration techniques. The lengthy report touches on many aspects in developing and deploying models for the changing energy landscape. Most of the components are already included in the VCE® WIS:dom® Optimization modeling suite of tools. Scientific Paper DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijepes.2020.106089

The present study finds that electrifying transportation and heating (along with some other sectors) while decarbonizing the Colorado electricity sector will enable the reduction of economy-wide GHG emissions to below 70% of 2005 levels by 2040, while lowering both electricity and energy costs for all Coloradans. Personal vehicle fuel costs are reduced by over $600 per year (if an EV is used), household heating fuel costs are reduced by over $500 when electrified. In addition, all electricity rates are lowered by 15%, meaning those that do not electrify also benefits with lower costs amounting to $98 per year.

The reduction in GHG emissions equates to Colorado exceeding all its target in HB19-1261 through 2040. The electrification of transportation and heating becomes essential in helping lower economy-wide emissions in an affordable manner. Their additions provides flexibility within the electricity grid over Colorado, which can enable more variable renewable energy sources.

The study was commissioned by Community Energy, Inc. as part of a series of studies to be released in 2019. Vibrant Clean Energy, LLC performed all the modeling using the WIS:dom® optimization model with publicly available data and assumptions. All salient inputs and outputs are provided, along with a report and a summary presentation.

The present study finds that adding Electric Vehicles (EVs) to the Colorado electricity system will assist in reducing GHG emissions, while lowering energy costs for Coloradans. Fuel costs are reduced by nearly $600 per year, while slightly lowering electricity rates.

The reduction in GHG emissions equates to more than completely decarbonizing the electricity grid alone. The electrification of transportation becomes essential in helping lower economy-wide emissions in an affordable manner. The addition of EVs provides flexibility within the electricity grid over Colorado, which can enable more variable renewable energy sources.

The study was commissioned by Community Energy, Inc. as part of a series of studies to be released in 2019. Vibrant Clean Energy, LLC performed all the modeling using the WIS:dom® optimization model with publicly available data and assumptions. All salient inputs and outputs are provided, along with a summarizing report and WIS:dom® description.

This study offers pathways and analysis of how Minnesota (MN) could transition from its current energy system to one that is decarbonized by 80% (from 2005 level) by 2050 [80×50]. The decarbonization would include the entire economy and is assumed to include energy efficiency measures, electrification, and generation changes. The study will model the entire United States (US) portion of the Eastern Interconnection along with electricity trade between the US, Mexico and Canada. The primary purpose of the study is to determine how Minnesota can meet the goals of 80×50 under various scenarios. These scenarios will be evaluated against a baseline scenario that assumes minimal electrification and no additional climate policies beyond those already enacted into law. DOI: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.13087670

The co-optimization carried out by Vibrant Clean Energy, LLC assessed the difference between purely cost-optimized futures, where expansion of wind, solar, natural gas and transmission was considered, and futures where carbon dioxide emissions are constrained. The case studies had time horizons of 2016, 2030, 2036 and 2050. The demand was grown to keep up with increasing electricity consumption over the MISO footprint. No connections to other markets were considered. DOI: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.13087598